Seasonal Occupancy Pattern — Koh Samui
Understanding Samui's seasonal pattern is essential for realistic yield modelling. The island has two monsoon seasons — one on each coast — and a marked peak season driven by European and Asian winter travel.
Peak Season (December–April)
This is Koh Samui's primary season. The northeast monsoon has ended, the Gulf coast is calm, and European and Australian visitors arrive in volume for Christmas, New Year, and the winter school holidays. Well-marketed villas in good locations typically achieve 60–80% occupancy through this period, with December and January often hitting 80–90% for sought-after properties. ADR is at its annual peak — rates 30–50% above the annual average are common during December–January and Easter.
Shoulder Season (May–June and October–November)
May and June see the end of peak season as European visitors return home but before the main monsoon. These months typically deliver 40–60% occupancy at slightly reduced ADR. Families travelling during school half-terms (UK) maintain demand in late May. October and November are transitional — the northeast monsoon begins in October but the island is still broadly accessible, and Christmas advance bookings start filling December. Expect 35–55% occupancy in this shoulder window.
Low Season (July–September)
July and August are the principal low-season months, though European school holidays (particularly French and Scandinavian) create a notable demand spike in July–August that partially offsets Samui's own weather patterns. Overall 30–50% occupancy is typical. Rates are at their annual low, and some villas underperform significantly without proactive low-season marketing — discounted weekly or monthly rates can maintain cash flow even when nightly ADR is under pressure.
Occupancy curve — indicative monthly pattern
| Month |
Season |
Typical Occupancy Range |
ADR Relative to Annual Average |
| December | Peak | 70–90% | +40–60% |
| January | Peak | 65–85% | +30–50% |
| February | Peak | 60–80% | +20–40% |
| March | Peak | 55–75% | +15–30% |
| April | Peak (Songkran) | 60–80% | +20–35% |
| May | Shoulder | 40–60% | +0–10% |
| June | Shoulder | 35–55% | -5–+5% |
| July | Low (EU school holidays) | 40–60% | -5–+10% |
| August | Low (EU school holidays) | 35–55% | -5–+5% |
| September | Low | 30–50% | -10–-5% |
| October | Shoulder / Monsoon onset | 30–50% | -10–0% |
| November | Shoulder (Christmas advance) | 35–55% | 0–+15% |
Occupancy ranges are indicative based on published Samui market benchmarks. Individual villa performance will vary based on location, specification, pricing strategy, and marketing quality.